Saturday, March 28, 2020
Corona - T minus 27 - Flattening the curve
We're all going to be sick. Some of us are going to die.
And yet... isolation and social distancing will save lifes. How? Read on...
They key to it all is the number of Intensive Care beds that are available. If the inflow of Corona patients is very limited, then only a limited number of beds will be required. (Yeah, that's the 'Open Deuren Universiteit' for you.)
(Very) sick people in an intensive care have a better chance to survive than outside an intensive care. (No surprises there either.)
By social distancing and self isolation we reduce the spread of the virus, thus decreasing the speed of new infections, thus decreasing the speed by which new Intensive Care beds are required, thus increasing the chance of survival of those ending up in the Intensive Care.
If we decrease the growth, we are 'flattening' the curve.
We all get sick
Well, probably. As there is no perfect isolation enforced, the virus will slowly spread. Yes, there is something called group immunity, but it's unclear if that works with this specific virus strain. It might, or it might not.
If group immunity works for the Covic-19 strain, then at a certain point in time the virus cannot infect new people, and will slowly disappear. After that point in time the non-infected non-immune people can no longer get in contact with infected non-immune people. Problem solved.
The spread will slow down, but it will keep on spreading.
Vaccination and medication
... may still be years away. Let's not count on it!
... so you won't get sick? How about your parents? Grand parents? You like them dead? Thought so...
On top of that, although younger people seem to have less chance on complications, and very few young people have died, there are still known cases of young(er) people ending up in the hospital with serious problems. Yes, those haven't died, but they do suffer, and some of the side effects may last very long.
Not a good plan either...
So let's follow the instructions, and hope we'll find a cure soon.